Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 10/24/13
MORNING GRAINS 10/24/13

Corn:

Exports: Sold Mexico 210,000t for 2014-2015!

Comments: Yesterday’s rally was due to higher ethanol production according to the wire services which is now the “Black Sea” excuse for any rally in wheat…..corn rallied on export demand and higher beans/meal and more of the ‘major battle’ lines drawn in open interest on the charts. Don’t second guess the EPA: they will blindside you, if they are looking to cut ethanol’s quantity mandate

it is not a fluke and would come from the highest levels of our government. More later. Apparently weekly export sales for the weeks of Oct. 10th, 17th and 24th will be released Oct. 31st; weekly export sales 1.3mln.m/t’s very good and a nice assortment of China (230,600t), Unknown (428,100t), Japan (179,300t), Columbia (145,000t) an Mexico (129,400t); open interest rose 7,800 even as Dec. falls 7000 amid much improved volume. No opinion change.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Weekly export sales 929,800t led by China & Unknown (roughly 360,000t); soymeal perked up at 850,000t led by 483,000t to Unknown but rest diversified; soyoil sales of little interest; Asian CPO futures lower after 4-days up; Some talk of China’s raising of interbank rates and a connection to financial stress there (yes even despite decent recently released data i.e. their PMI); open interest up 4,000 amid strong volume; I’m not chasing November beans up here but in general a move to $13.20’s-13.30’s would seem a bit overpriced for now.

Wheat:

Exports: Iraq buys 150,000t Aust./Canada; Philippines buys 45,000t Ukraine feed wheat.

Comments: Argentine news reports say having a “bread crisis” with riots as prices climb +$17.00/bu. domestically (harvest still a few weeks away); open interest rose 1,660 amid

light volume. Buying breaks still the trading affair tilt. Weekly export sales fell to 653,600t off 22% but still decent and diverse and even as Unknown/Singapore cancels 242,000t.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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