Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 10/14/13
MORNING GRAINS 10/14/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: The EPA says, basically, what they said about the ethanol mandate was just an idea and as wire services say, a “leaked’ report ……when the USDA’s away the rats will play?; harvest 25-35% complete vs. 38% avg.?; China still rumored to have bought a lot of U.S. corn; Asian report sees grain support from 1) China demand, 2) lower plantings in Black Sea, and 3) lower exports from Argentina; China corn production 2013 est. 215mln.m/t’s up 4.6% on year and total grain harvest a 10th record high in a row seen; open interest rose 4400 amid very light volume Friday; New lows in the corn on the ethanol news, good harvest weather and weak technicals that smack of funds ‘defending’ new short positions as mentioned (sure could use the C-O-T reports). Well, my buying was call option related ot futures and for this reason though I feel blindsided on the ethanol deal. hence no feel in here.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: No visible exports doesn’t make sense unless commercial sales reported to the USDA just not being reported out the other end; harvest seen aqt 35-45% vs. 58% avg. by the trade; soyoil deliveries 43; China Sept. bean imports 4.7mln.m/t’s dn. 26.2% on month, 5.4% on yr., Jan.-Sept. 45.8mln. up 3.3%; China government says bean crop 12.5mln.m/t’s off 4.2% on year; China CPI Sept. rose 3.1% due to food price increases up 6%; Cereals Exchange sees Argentina plantings c/be up 2.5% for 2013-2014; open interest rose 8,600 even as November falls 4,800 amid strong volume (Jan. up 11,500)….funds are now shorting beans since corn prices now back in their favor? Like the corn, longs here were deliberately call options and part of that due to the uncertainty in the midst of harvest. New swing lows, not by much but new swing lows nonetheless. I’m letting it sit awhile.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: China government says 2013 wheat production 122.2mln.m/t’s up 1.1% on year, and for 2014 already raised price support by 5% to protect farmer prices and keep production up; open interest rose 3,500 amid moderate volume on what seems to be relatively light fund buying (new longs); no fresh news and/or feel in here. Pretty choppy.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.