MORNING GRAINS 04/25/13
Exports: Sold China 300,000t, Unknown 240,000t new crop.
Comments: Weekly export sales fell 21% to 314,700t, new crop not much but next week will be; Argentine corn said at a $1.08/bu. discount to the U.S. currently; open interest fell 3,300 led by May off 18,000 amid moderate/good volume; Weather forecasts still look better but clients in many areas, especially parts of Iowa, say drying out enough a week or two away. Will maintain the planting delay options play, as too early perhaps to press July much lower than the $6.15-6.10 area near term. No other changes as mentioned, still a bear market. Oh, and thanks China for the 540,000t overnight sale.
Exports: None Visible.
Comments: Not ‘money squeeze’ hey? Weekly old crop export sales a marketing year low at a (-) minus 206,300t led by China cancelling 281,500t and Unknown 24,800t and the May soybean contract so far whistling past the graveyard? The market just got back over 300,000t old crop supplies and….forget it, somehow it still must be bullish I guess; meal sales fell 27% to a light 193,300t and soyoil off 79% to a nothing 1,700t; U.S. beans at a $1.70 premium to Brazil if one can bear a shipping delay; speaking of which, saw a report out of Asia saying China port stocks now “ample”?; open interest fell 7,615 led by May off 17,300 amid moderate volume; Sill bearish as before and merely sitting on hedges and long puts for now, looking to sell the July outright (admittedly the May ‘squeeze’ threw my sell stance askew).
Exports: Bangladesh in 50,000t opt/org.; Japan buys 95,651t.
Comments: Every year I argue it’s too early to ‘combine’ old crop/new crop sales as old crop sales still very indicative at this time frame, as such weekly export sales fell to 71,700t off 87% on week and a marketing year low (unknown and others cancels 160,000t). However, even if using new crop sales of only 234,700t the total would still be light side. No opinion change.