Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 04/23/13

MORNING GRAINS 04/23/13

Corn:
Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Plantings 4% complete vs. 2% wk. and 16% 5-year avg. (near record low?); StatsCanada planting intentions seen ‘complicated’ due to a late spring; U.S. southeast sees favorable conditions; open interest rose 1900 amid light volume (no real bear-conviction here?); July posts new swing low, close under $6.15 to test $6.00? Right in here, it might be a bit premature to press the market much lower due to a planting-delayed premium perhaps, and as such will maintain yesterday’s comments. Hedgers hold tight.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold China 392,000t new crop.

Comments: While China dances now with South America, they want to make sure the U.S. bean producers do not get jealous by continuously booking new crop supplies from us. And somehow expect China wants to make sure we plant large acreage. Speaking of China, their PMI fell indicating a slower economic growth rate; China futures slightly higher but PMI limits rally. India’s Central Bank says sharply lower commodity prices to cool inflation and ‘pre-monsoon rains to lash drought areas in western areas the next few days; open interest rose 7,000 even as May falls 5880. July beans nearby support its t/l up at $13.60, better support in the $13.50’s for now. The May contract squeeze about all that is holding it together.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Winter wheat 35% g, /excel. dn. 1% on week and as expected, freeze damage noted in southwest plains; spring wheat plantings 7% complete vs. 13% avg. (northern ‘snow path’); E.U. futures lower with warmer temps. amid adequate to surplus soil moisture; open interest little changed in total even a May falls 6770 amid moderate volume. As I have said, the U.S. crop problem is a “local” one in global terms and the rest of the world providing ample competition for us. Granted, a major planting problem for our corn would get wheat out of its doldrums but for now, I see what could be a “rounding top” developing in the July contract and as such a likely sell area over $7.00 with a likely bear defense a move over $7.22 for now.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.