Kleist Comments

MORNING GRAINS 04/22/13

MORNING GRAINS 04/22/13

Corn:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: Asian report suggests China’s bird flu will reduce their corn/meal imports in the 2nd ½ of year; poultry industry said lost $2.0bln. in less than 1 month, plus consumer demand not trusting poultry; China corn March imports fell 50% to 237,000t (Jan./Mch. Dn. 41%); plantings est.’s 5-6% vs. 18% avg.?; open interest rose 1400 amid light-side volume; C-O-T report: overall neutral to me. May corn has kept failing over $6.60’s, July over $6.40’s. Weather forecasts drier? In a rare move, I am looking to hedge planting delay possibilities in call options; otherwise maintaining short hedges.

SOYBEANS:

Exports: Sold China 174,000t new crop.

Comments: China bird flu remains a demand consideration (see above); March China soybean imports 3.84mln.m/t’s dn. 20.4% on year (soyoil off 31%); Asian CPO falls to 4-month lows on weaker demand; China futures down on bird flu and government to sell rapeseed oil reserves at below market prices; open interest rose 9,400 led by July up 5725 (hello funds) amid moderate-light volume; C-O-T report: leaned bearish. May soybeans holding over $1.400 still suggests squeeze to me though admittedly it’s holding better than I expected. Nonetheless, from a spec perspective new position shorts are in put options for the July though the $13.80-90’s’s looking more and more like an attractive short futures sale speculatively.

Wheat:

Exports: None Visible.

Comments: E.U. futures lower on warming weather; HRW ratings last week 36%, some improvement seen?; Russian wheat prices drop low enough to be competitive for exports (Ukraine also found wheat for exports?); Russian plantings remain ahead of year on good weather; open interest fell 1,000 amid moderate volume. May Chicago wheat rallies continue to be stymied at the low end of my likely sell area at $7.16-1/2. Might have to change it (price and month). Will advise.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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