Kleist Comments

Midday Ag comments 8/1/14
Midday Ag comments 8/1/14

Corn into new lows on forecast rains that “will cement the crop” so to speak into record yields territory; brief rally seemed wheat-inspired and reversed quickly. And, while redundant, export demand lacking for old crop.
Soybeans: Like the corn, the trade looks to expected rains next week as just what the doctored ordered combined with mild temps. to set up the soybean fields for fine yields…even so, I suspect the stock market crash yesterday took some steam out of many commodities i.e. margin calls. November holding by a thread: support at 410.65-1/2-10.55 (contract low basically) to keep its consolidation hopes in play.
Wheat: Cannot get too excited about the recovery just yet: part of exports, yes; part of it corn/wheat spread unwinding; part of it oversold. Some talk about Germany’s crop being rain-damaged enough that a large part of it will be for “fodder”. Well, while it COULD help U.S. exports there are other country’s also that can fill the possible void. And wouldn’t it also mean a lot more feed wheat? (hello, corn).
No overnight grain/soy exports announced………………
Cattle: Futures indicated lower cash cattle market’s as likely expected: Nebraska kicks off with $162.00 (said for 2 week delivery); beef midday turned mixed with strong select beef losses, slightly higher choice, amid lighter than usual movement. Technically August’s close under $158.00 was a bull warning and we’ll see if the market has topped out (once cash cattle starts in earnest some support will be off hedge lifting which already seen in the bounce off its lows. August feeder cattle had a genuine ‘key reversal’ yesterday (fat a ‘triple high basically in the August) and we needs respect it.
Hogs: I/M early dropped over $4.00 to about $117.00, and August hogs still premium to it (don’t worry, lean index will follow quickly eventually if it continues); 2nd day of a hit to the pork cut outs at midday, largely from loins; October hogs posted a ‘double low’ at $102.37 before recovering but a weak recovery so far.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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