Kleist Comments

CLOSING AG’S & NBSP 10/21/13
CLOSING AG’S & NBSP 10/21/13

LIVESTOCK

Cattle: Cash cattle North: $129-130.00 and $202-204.00; South $128-129.00 and (ks.) $204.00; beef prices up $1.69 choice to up $1.04 select on light midday volume.

Comments: Narrowly changed session with light interest both flat price and on spreads. Maybe we’ll see the delayed C-O-F report this Friday. Nonetheless, the sharply higher beef prices midday were not necessarily an indication of cattle prices to come but for now merely paying for the packer’s ‘generosity’ of last week’s $1-4.00 higher payouts. As such, we still might be in topping frame work. Weekly beef export sales of little help for the bulls. Showlists supportive? Off 10,000 combined across Neb., Tx., Ks.

Hogs: Interior hogs still being jacked around with the western corn belt and I/M unquoted again with eastern interior lower, off $1.68 early ($87.27); pork cut outs modestly higher midday up $.43.

Comments: Weak most of the session as the eastern corn belt interior and some terminals open lower. Concern over expected numbers coming seasonally along with higher weights (tonnage) for now keeping a lid on rallies as are technical sales on rallies. Weekly pork export sales lightly supportive but not seen as consistent.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Two-sided trade amid light volume with some support off more expected harvest delays in certain areas and on re-aligning inter market spreads vs. wheat. USDA crop progress expected updated later on. Weekly inspections supportive at 32.2mlnbu.vs. 22.2mln. wk.

Soybeans: Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow………..maybe. Overnight and into tomorrow perhaps this far south but a sloppy, soggy half snow half sleet type of deal the forecasts are indicating. Once more November beans daring to barge into the castle gates of $13.00; weekly inspections healthy at 59.3mln. vs. 47.4mln.

Wheat: Look, Friday funds were heavy buyers and open interest rose a relatively large 8, 145 contracts…today they are not buying much and price fall back smartly. Or one can blame on a lack of fresh Black Sea planting interruptions or some talk Argentina’s crop might actually be improving some from recent frosts: or this…funds were just busy elsewhere; Ukraine Ag Minister says plantings behind it is ‘intensifying’, winter grain plantings at 86% total (7.0mln.ha. vs. 7.7mln.yr. not all that serious?). So while they are improving there as also talk about rains over the weekend in the U.S.—-Ks. and Okla. aiding conditions. Again, I am friendly wheat and have been but not because of the lame reason of the Black Sea (hey, don’t forget their rye and barley plantings pulling down the average as well). I would have thought sensible traders had enough of that for far too many months last year. I know, money talks.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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