Kleist Comments

CLOSING AG’S & NBSP 10/18/13
CLOSING AG’S & NBSP 10/18/13

LIVESTOCK

Cattle: Cash cattle North: $129-130.00 and $202-204.00; South $128-129.00 and (ks.) $204.00; beef prices off $.62 choice to off $1.73 select on light midday volume.

Comments: I MADE A SERIOUS MISTAKE: since I used a shortened bar chart (1/2 year) for December cattle, all I saw was a huge ‘key reversal’ and as I rant many times against misuse of the label….it was not a “key reversal” since contract highs were made $137.50 quite awhile back. Since I rail against misuse of several chart labels by the uninformed or ignorant, I especially regret the error. That said, the ‘reversal’ was still strong enough that I will hold to morning comments.

Might see some beef export sales numbers at 2:00 Chgo/ time as per USDA memo?

Hogs: Interior hogs still being jacked around with the western corn belt and I/M quoted lower ($90.85 avg.) but the eastern corn belt now under the ‘confidentiality’ dome; pork cut outs sharply lower midday off $2.94 led by bellies off $12.79 (Like the “old days” or pork reporting better).

Comments: Yesterday’s ‘reversal’ held intact and might be a indication a strong seasonal down move is kicking in place. However, the newly reported cut outs falling sharply lower might be suspicious on a day when there is finally a comparison for it. All of a sudden pork falls apart? We’ll see. At least I didn’t call a ‘key reversal’ here.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Looked like a slow volume trade and ranges kept in check relatively well and narrow at that. Some talk the USDA will release export sales numbers after the close but for 1 or 2 or 3 weeks? Point being some support on looking for a large China buying number.

Soybeans: $13.00 area once more a magnet for cash sales and hedging and as a consequence repelled once again. Early support from China and Unknown overnight buying 360,000t and some underlying support on the prospects of a bullish USDA export sales after the close.

Wheat: December finally overtook the $7.00 area apparently on talk of more crop losses in Argentina due to an expected freeze there; throw in what has been some planting concerns in the Black Sea region; and expectations U.S. exports have remained robust.
By the way, forecasters here are looking at the first snow of the season possibly Monday night as a Canada cold front moves in.
Finally, Informa reportedly is looking for 2014 corn acres at 91.7mln., down 4.3mln. on yr.; soybeans at 83.9mln. up 7.0mln. on yr.; and all-wheat 57.7mln.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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