Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 8/1/14
CLOSING AGS 8/1/14

Cattle:
Comments: Nearly a $5.00 break in futures from yesterday’s high to today’s low before bouncing. Likely off shortcovering and hedge lifting. Cash cattle kicked off in Nebraska at $163.00 on limited numbers but still looking for the majority sales to come in across both north and south belts. The break is in line, assuming not a top put in, with the big last break/correction that took prices a couple more dollar’s lower. Beef midday showed some cracks to the bull-armor in price and movement but cannot as yet ascertain if a sturdy top is in. be flexible. Late: Ks. $163.00.

Hogs:
Comments: Kind of a lifeless trade. October hogs posted a ‘double low’ at $102.37 before recovering. The recent losses proceeded the sharply lower interior drop of late and basis I/M August hogs merely in line with it (roughly $117.00). Pork trade limp and loins causing most of the packer margins discomfort.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: New lows. Good current weather conditions (yes I know not in ALL spots, I even have clients in certain areas that slashed their once impressive yields). But a LOCAL problem, even several of them, not likely significant overall. Weak old crop export demand also noted. Throw in a favorable 6-10 forecast of normal to above normal weather.

Soybeans: Not like the beans to ‘just give up’ like it has. Granted, nothing really overtly bullish fundamentally. Hence I suspect there was some worry over the various global crisis’ and the stock market ‘crash’ yesterday.

Wheat: Not impressive except that prices held up while corn and beans fell around them. The background is bits and pieces: very good export sales yesterday; unwinding corn/wheat spreads; oversold technical; and quality problems in Europe. Technically still seems a weak-volume rally taking out last week’s then retreating quickly back under it. Remember: the past has been rallies short-lived due to increasing export prices and other country’s undercutting us.

 

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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