Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 7/11/13
CLOSING AGS 7/11/13

LIVESTOCK

Cattle: Cash cattle last week $119.00 south, $120-121.00 Neb.; boxed beef mixed on light midday volume; futures again narrowly changed awaiting the live trade to establish. Some reported in Iowa at $119-122.00 live and $189-193.00 dressed; retail featuring a mix of “cheap” meats post-holiday.

Hogs: Interior hogs not established early (east opens lower); pork midday cut outs lower early; futures mixed most of the session with spot July trailing the lean index while August worried over a seasonal cash top being put in.

USDA report lowers production of beef (2nd Q kills), pork (Pig Crop) and poultry.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: USDA S/D report: Carryover 1.959bln.bu. up. 10mln. on: production down 55mln.bu. (yld. unchanged, harvested acreage down 400,000) with carry-in dn. 69mln.(feed use up 50mln.), offset by feed use dn. 50mln./export dn. 50mln. , ethanol use unchanged; avg. farm price unchanged at $4.40-5.20; world carryover nominally lower at 151mln.m/t’s. Conclusion: negative report except it’s July 11th and with late plantings extends growing time. If it was August, prices would be sharply lower. Nearby upside objective for me unchanged.

Weather market obviously.

Soybeans: Carryover 295mln.bu. up 30mln. up 30mln. all due to production of 3.420bln.bu. up 30mln. (yld. unchanged at 44.5 but harvested acres up 700,000), usage numbers all unchanged; world carryover up 400,000t to 74.1mln.m/t’s; avg. farm price $9.75-11.75 unchanged. Conclusion: negative report except its July 11th and not Sept. 1st. A lot could happen to the crop. Nonetheless, after hitting my upside objective will turn neutral for a while.

Wheat: Carryover 576mln.bu. dn. 83mln. bu.; production raised 34mln. to 2.114bln.bu., feed use dn. 100mln.bu., exports up 100mln. and carry-in lowered 28mln. (feed increase); harvested acres lowered 1.0mln. offset by yields up 1.6bu./acre to 46.2bu.; world carryover lowered 7.0mln.m/t’s to 174.2mln.m/t’s (old crop stocks 179.9); avg. farm price $6.25-7.55. Conclusion: positive report and will hold to upside price projection for the Sept. contract.

Corn right now less an influence than it might be come Sept. (depends on size of crop and pricing). Hence likely large volatility.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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