Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 6/13/14
CLOSING AGS 6/13/14

Cattle: Cash cattle this week: $148.00-150.00, Neb dressed $236-238.00; on 68 boxed loads cut outs up. $.64(c) to up. $.29(s) on good midday movement.

Comments: Beautiful bullish extension into new highs and still, futures at discount to the live price range. Beef has acted great and far better than expected (to some!) and weaker exports barely slowed down that demand. Father’s Day for Sunday Steak!
Then not much later on the calendar July 4th (and a Friday) BBQ’ing! With two more free days afterwards!

Hogs: Interior hogs mixed at up $1.31 (E), to dn. $1.60 west.
Pork cut outs fell $2.49, primals all lower.
Comments: Now that June expired, the July gets interesting in that: 1) this will be the 4th time testing what has been glass ceiling at the $128-129.00 area (contract highs occurred Mch. 27th at $128.95 by the way). It’s important because like back then, it’s all on the come! Not saying the great PEDv plague won’t happen as some suggest but it’s not here yet, 2) cash hogs need to increase by some $13-15.00 just from here. And with it consider what the price of pork MUST do to get there. I think we’re setting up another March 28th.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: After rapid plantings, after very good crop ratings, after limp export sales, etc. the July corn seems to be trying to set up a ‘value’ area in the past winter price areas. There’s really no weather threat built in and funds are saturated short positions. I believe ultimately, sans a real weather problem, sub-$4.00 corn but it is too early perhaps to expect a more wholesale drop in prices. And no sharp, sustained rally either.

Soybeans: For the week, July beans saw a near 60-cent break top to bottom as ‘the game’ again lost its luster from imports, high plantings and great weather. However, the bean’s month is August and with that might be tough to get November to or through $12.00 this early. Eventually? Sure.

Wheat: For all the problems I find time to time trading wheat (liquidity has been one of them) I’ll give them this: the market learned its lesson that lower crop problems here in the U.S. is a “local problem” in global terms. For years that game was played out only to fail…for obvious reasons eventually. If global crops are good. Soybeans, hello?

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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