Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 6/12/13

CLOSING AGS 6/12/13

LIVESTOCK

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $122.00 and Neb. dressed $197-198.00; boxed beef modestly mixed on moderate; futures narrowly mixed most of session and still contained to a trading range. USDA S/D report raised 2013 beef production slightly and lowered prices a $1.00 to $125-130.00.

Hogs: Interior hogs not established; pork midday cut outs sharply higher-again- early; futures a bit choppy but mainly seems spreaders were ‘butterflying’ long June and August vs. short July, perhaps ‘just in case’ a correction is looming. Wonder if the Smithfield will back fire some: higher cash hog good for the farm economy (as mentioned) but the unusually sharp gains in the pork prices could hurt the consumers. USDA report quiet: very slightly raised pork production for 2013 and raises avg. price to $54-61.00, up $1.00.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

I admit finding it difficult to squeeze out anything profound on any of the reports, especially with a long growing season ahead. Suffice it to say carryover’s a bit over average estimates allows a corrective break in prices (July beans not so much, Argentine strike this weekend?).

Corn: USDA carryover 1.949bln.bu. dn. 55mln.bu. on: carry-in rose

10mln. (F/S/I up 65 mln., exports dn. 50mln., imports up 25mln.) with yields lowered 1.5bu. to 156.5bu./acre for production of 14.005bln. dn. 135mln.; feed off 125mln., exports unchanged, F/S/I up 55mln. Avg. farm price $4.40-5.20 up $.10 both sides; world carry lowered 3.5mln.

Soybeans: Carryover 265mln.bu. unchanged, ylds. unchanged, rest all unchanged (of some note: old crop exports were dropped 20mln., imports up 5mln.); avg. price $9.75-$11.75 up $.25; world carryover lowered 1.3mln.m/t’s. Of note: old crop carry unchanged again (instead of lower on demand), ‘rationing’ must be working.

Wheat: Carrover 659mln.bu. dn. 11mln. due to: carry-in raised 15 mln. (old crop exports reduced 15mln. noted); yields up .5bu. to 44.6bu.acre raises production by 23mln.bu. offset by exports raised 50mln.; avg. price $6.25-7.565 up $.10. World carry reduced 5.1mln.m/t’s (Black Sea weather).

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.