CLOSING AGS 6/12/13
Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $122.00 and Neb. dressed $197-198.00; boxed beef modestly mixed on moderate; futures narrowly mixed most of session and still contained to a trading range. USDA S/D report raised 2013 beef production slightly and lowered prices a $1.00 to $125-130.00.
Hogs: Interior hogs not established; pork midday cut outs sharply higher-again- early; futures a bit choppy but mainly seems spreaders were ‘butterflying’ long June and August vs. short July, perhaps ‘just in case’ a correction is looming. Wonder if the Smithfield will back fire some: higher cash hog good for the farm economy (as mentioned) but the unusually sharp gains in the pork prices could hurt the consumers. USDA report quiet: very slightly raised pork production for 2013 and raises avg. price to $54-61.00, up $1.00.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
I admit finding it difficult to squeeze out anything profound on any of the reports, especially with a long growing season ahead. Suffice it to say carryover’s a bit over average estimates allows a corrective break in prices (July beans not so much, Argentine strike this weekend?).
Corn: USDA carryover 1.949bln.bu. dn. 55mln.bu. on: carry-in rose
10mln. (F/S/I up 65 mln., exports dn. 50mln., imports up 25mln.) with yields lowered 1.5bu. to 156.5bu./acre for production of 14.005bln. dn. 135mln.; feed off 125mln., exports unchanged, F/S/I up 55mln. Avg. farm price $4.40-5.20 up $.10 both sides; world carry lowered 3.5mln.
Soybeans: Carryover 265mln.bu. unchanged, ylds. unchanged, rest all unchanged (of some note: old crop exports were dropped 20mln., imports up 5mln.); avg. price $9.75-$11.75 up $.25; world carryover lowered 1.3mln.m/t’s. Of note: old crop carry unchanged again (instead of lower on demand), ‘rationing’ must be working.
Wheat: Carrover 659mln.bu. dn. 11mln. due to: carry-in raised 15 mln. (old crop exports reduced 15mln. noted); yields up .5bu. to 44.6bu.acre raises production by 23mln.bu. offset by exports raised 50mln.; avg. price $6.25-7.565 up $.10. World carry reduced 5.1mln.m/t’s (Black Sea weather).