Cattle: Cash cattle so far: $146.00 south sdy./up $1.00; on 97 boxed loads cut outs dn. $1.10(c) to dn. $2.72 (s) on good midday movement.
Comments: Nasty little pull back from yesterday’s gains. Cash-wise in Iowa/Minn. at $148.00 and 235.00. Part of the problem might be there is not the bull-commitment to the long side, as per open interest as I detail daily. IF the discount is not enough then the market is again telling us something. Next week likely a bigger test to see if the new contract highs of the week were just a technical aberration or not.
Hogs: Interior hogs Not/Est.; Pork cut outs rose $.34, strongly mixed primals.
Comments: Poor pork market on the charts for the week. While the talk of PEDv remains rampant, the futures not ready to extend its premium to the live/lean it seems. That indicates a ‘wait and see’ attitude perhaps due to questions over the severity of the summer kills. I agree.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: Smacked hard into major m/a support on the charts today. The weather forecasts turned decidedly pro-planting for next week and with that I suppose those long here might have been long beans yesterday and bailed out of positions for margin reasons.
Soybeans: I’ll give it its due for a consolidation after yesterday’s +50-cent decline in prices. Still, the story is not complete until I can get my hands on Brazil imports and further China cancellations.
Wheat: Higher closes led sharply by KC and the Sunshine Gang. Too much sunshine I fear in the southwest as per the Crop Tour results. However, Informa also helped a bit on their winter wheat crop estimate.
Informa: Corn: Brazil 70.5mln.m/t’s dn. 1.0mln. on prev. est. (72mln. last USDA)
Argentina 23.3mln., up 300,000t (24.0mln.)
Soybeans: Brazil 87.4mln.m/t’s up 650,000t (87.5mln.)
Argentina 54mln. dn. 500,000t (54mln.)
Winter wheat est. production: 1.486ln.bu. dn. 38mln. on yr., dn. 120mln. from prev. est.