CLOSING AGS 5/03/13
Cattle: Cash cattle this week $128.-131.00; dressed Neb. $206.-2.07.00, few to $208.00; boxed beef narrowly mixed on light midday volume; futures logical: new record high cash cattle; darn near record high choice beef; a significant June discount to the live and then or course futures turn sharply lower. My thesis on why keeping the market as a trading affair proven conclusively. I covered this in Morning Meat comments, no sense repeating it all. Safe to say the fundamental outlooks ruling the action….not the funds.
Hogs: Interior hogs early narrowly mixed, rough avg. $85.50; pork? sharply higher midday bellies and higher cut outs, I have no faith in the data being put out. Futures narrowly mixed and choppy with the May contract supported by rising, generally, interior prices and of course the lean index.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: The May contract cannot fall much as shorts that overstayed their welcome keep covering shorts on any dip. That then spills over to the July, though new crop remained under pressure individually.
Informa’s Brazil crop estimate was raised by 1.9mln.m/t’s and Argentina’s by 200,000t to 25.5mln….point also is conditions got better there.
Soybeans: Just about a 50% correction from the high on Tuesday’s collapse to Wed.’s low to today’s high for July beans. I keep talking low volume and there it is via whipsaws …means the big boys are playing the old crop squeeze to me. Informa Brazil crop reduced by 750,000t to 82.5mln. while Argentina’s crop raised by 1.0mln.m/t’s. Unusually for me beating a same drum but I believe still most of this rally (from April 24th) has been smoke and mirrors.
Wheat: Quiet trade with much of the action merely mimicking the action in the corn. Some light support from Informa’s winter wheat estimate of 1.529bln.bu. vs. their April’s 1.631bln. take on it. However, it was no surprise.