Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 4/30/14
CLOSING AGS 4/30/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $145.-146.00 south, $147.-148.00 north with
$235.-236.00 north dressed; on 74 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.34(c) to up. $2.58 (s) on light/moderate midday movement.
Comments: Another session of apparent light volume and varied outlooks for the cash cattle this week and beyond. Of course, even the bearish among us have to concede June’s near $10.00 drop in cash prices as it is. As such, the reason we look at the charts for trading.
Hogs: Interior hogs mixed @ east off $.61 and west up $.75;
Pork cut outs rose $.49, quieter trade.
Comments: Sharply lower to limit down at one point underscores the thin and non-commitment of the bulls…PEDv or not it seems. Well, there were a couple negative things in here: wts. in I/M rose another 1.1lbs. to 287.5 and is also up 9.5lbs. on the year; then there was yesterday’s implosion in the pork trade (cut outs) that found some footing today and helped put some legs under the futures.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: Seemed volume was on the light side though there could have been some larger ‘rolling’ of positions done on a spread basis. To rain or not to rain…..that is the question. In that regard, some forecasts look for a drying out over the weekend and next week to be fairly warm and dry as well.
Keep in mind we need to get over the flooding before we can tout a drought.
Soybeans: Come all this way and not take out the highs? A rather modest trading range and an orderly session? Well, even though there is no fresh news over China’s cancellations, Brazil bean imports and/or Argentine soymeal imports there this: China might be preparing to deal with GMO beans on a health issue much like in the corn. Bull spreads work as May shorts still on the defensive and the spreads are ‘juiced’ to accommodate any rolling.
Wheat: I have mentioned for years that fund managers have wiggled their way into various crop tours and sure enough, one from group Macquarie N.Y. with the current wheat tour basically said….” the tour was greeted by cracked, dusty fields” in Kansas. Ties in nicely to my morning comments about talk big banks are recommending buying corn and wheat (what, no beans?) due to U.S. production and the Ukraine/Russian tensions.
Coattail at ones own risk.
30 Apr 2014 09:49 EDT DJ Ample Vessels Mean Grain Freight Rates Plummet–Market Talk
1349 GMT (Dow Jones)–An oversupply of dry bulk vessels globally is resulting in slumping freight rates to ship grains, according to U.K. farming body, the HGCA. “The world fleet of dry bulk vessels, used to transport cargoes such as grains, coal and metals, is at a record size. Despite global trade in grains forecast at a record level, a general weakness of demand for freight relative to supply is keeping freight rates low,” says Arthur Marshall, analyst at the grains body. The worst hit rates i.e. panamax vessels–the largest carrying grains vessels–are down 31% so far this year alone, it adds. (Write to Neena Rai at neena.rai@wsj.com)
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 30, 2014 09:49 ET (13:49 GMT)

 

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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