Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 4/17/14
CLOSING AGS 4/17/14

***************HAVE A SAFE & HAPPY EASTER HOLIDAY*****************

Cattle: Cash cattle so far: $146.00 south.
few $240.00 north dressed; on 78 boxed loads cut outs up. $1.65(c) to up. $1.06(s) on moderate/good midday movement.
Comments: Guess my question of what April or June cattle was telling us was answered. And those ‘magic’ price areas of $145 and $135.00 April/June failed finally as well. It looked like there’d be better support with the high beef movement, the beef price ‘recovery’ and a decent weekly beef export sales number. The April more explainable than the June perhaps. Being a short-kill week and ideas of beef demand tapering off post-Easter combined with trade talk of better kill numbers just over the horizon.
Hogs: Interior hogs not/est. east, west.
Pork cut outs fell $.21, fairly quiet.
Comments: Longs in cattle switched into long hogs? Part of the cattle deal has been, my opinion, that cattle futures didn’t necessarily buy in to the PEDv-shortage as some traders were (and still are) touting and pork had the opposite one-day items: cash hogs lower again, cut outs remain falling, pork demand listless, wts. up 9.1lbs. on yr. etc., yet we rallied here.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: Most of the pressure came from what seems ideal weather forecasts, at least here in Illinois: 70′s Sunday, 60′s to Wed. then +70′s afterward and not much rain with it (uh, oh…drought coming!). a 9% decline in weekly export sales also noted.
Soybeans: “Rationing” off the table today in pre-long weekend profit taking? and the May contract held like a brick off the lower $14.00 area.
Bottom of the barrel weekly export sales at note with some overbought technical conditions; meal and soyoil sales also way low. I did hear a report that said 1 Brazilian cargo of beans has hit our shores but cannot confirm. Once the game has played out, I expect a serious break but hard to tell when. That why I recommended probing the short side in the options on morning comments. Hedgers also need to price Nov. beans and Dec. corn in the ‘least risky’ way.

Wheat: My $7.00 price ‘curse’ still in effect as we cannot sustain rallies above it (Chgo. May). That’s export demand talking. A recovery in the weekly sales number came back to routine levels and hardly makes up for several weeks of poor sales. Nonetheless, some support off the psychology of the Ukraine crisis and talk of weather in the southern plains next week.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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