Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 3/5/14
CLOSING AGS 3/5/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $150.-152.50 and $240.00 dressed North. On 60 boxed loads cut outs up. $2.99(c) to up. $2.31(s) on light midday movement.

Comments: Well, interesting change of events as cattle prices collapse and set up the April for a “key reversal” (not closed as of this writing but would be under $145.62). Cash cattle then should be interesting but could not find any as I wrote.

Hogs: Interior hogs mixed @ up $1.04 (e) and dn. $2.44 (w).

Pork cut outs rose $.74, mixed primals.

Comments: Overbought? After another limit up move the April certainly seemed so as it collapsed; June struggled to hold higher after its limit up move as well but that made the bear spreads work. Perhaps the sell off in direct response to our all-shortcovering/Russian bookings in the market. Plus, April might have let out the last weak short in typical squeeze dealings. Preliminary volume estimate was very heavy.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Bull spreads working stabilized the early break. As sent, the U.S. Grains Council seemed to suggest that any export delays in Ukraine were due to farmers holding corn and wheat due to currency considerations. Not the godless communists. Maybe there is some export demand around that we will find out about tomorrow at 8:00 cdt.

By the way, my farmers in east Iowa say that if soil moisture is OK, the crop insurance rules would favor more corn vs. beans. Nonetheless, a bit surprising there as no fund ‘defense’ buying into the close.

Soybeans: That old black magic called love…or in this case the $14.00 area that front beans tried and failed to get to. The China cancellations? Seems the market psyche is still ‘what’s bullish is bullish and what’s bearish is bullish’. And OK, the cancellations were expected and that’s why Monday’s rally failed to take out contract highs.

Wheat: Between a rock (declining exports) and a hard place (fund shortcovering/corn recovery). At least it might realize that Ukraine farmers HOLDING off grain movement not the same as movement being stopped by political machinations.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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