Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 3/4/14
CLOSING AGS 3/4/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $150.-152.50 and $240.00 dressed North. On 58 boxed loads cut outs up. $1.58(c) to up. $1.33(s) on light midday movement.

Comments: New contract highs as ‘meat fever’ grips the pits. Technical’s, hog futures/PEDv, tighter showlists and sharply higher beef background the bullishness. And the discount of course.

Hogs: Interior hogs higher (e) and Not/Est. again (w).

Pork cut outs fell $.82, even as bellies fall +$8.00, rest up minor.

Comments: I miss read the sharply lower open interest yesterday as a possible negative as there was heavy shortcovering. Another limit up day through summer months likely was more shortcovering/panic buying (hello margin dept’s.). Guess with Russia being ‘less aggressive’ the Ukraine situation cooled off enough to believe tyey will be in buying U.S. pork next Monday (by the way, normally the pork would have been booked by now for the first shipments).

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Informa highlights:
Brazil all-corn 65.5 mmt, down 1.1 mmt from last month
Brazil soybean 88.8 mmt, down 0.9 mmt from last month

Arg soybean production 54.0 mmt, down 3 mmt from last month
Arg corn 22.6 mmt, unch from last month.

Corn: I have been seriously misjudging the funds needs for accumulating long corn contracts. The focus seems firmly on potential plantings disrupted by a cold 90-day forecast along with potential excess moisture. the improved export demand seems a rather ‘underlying’ supportive feature than the main one. (my Iowa client’s latest plantings June 1).

Soybeans: Funds busy elsewhere? In the corn say? May soybeans were again stubbornly held off the $14.00 area and this time around, found support from the corn rally (and the soyoil rally as meal was weak on spreads). Plus, perhaps IF corn has delayed plantings then there will be more bean plantings? While the high is likely in, we must be prepared for whipsaws.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

Disclaimer: Trading options and commodities involves risk of loss and my not be for every investor. Past trading results may not be indicative of future performance. Although information and opinions provided herein are compiled from sources believed reliable, the sender, EBOT Trading, or its principals cannot attest as to accuracy or assume any responsibility for any errors or omissions as the information may not be complete or events may have changed.