Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 3/3/14
CLOSING AGS 3/3/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $150.-152.50 and $240.00 dressed North. On 53 boxed loads cut outs up. $3.56(c) to up. $4.49(s) on light midday movement.

Comments: Bit surprised April cattle dropped so hard considering the April hogs, the expected lack of live hog supplies on PEDv and the sharply higher beef again. Perhaps the ‘cycle’ needs to be repeated whereas beef goes to record highs, finds demand cracks and then falls sharply to buy its way back into consumption. Perhaps. Back months picked up the slack with help from unwinding of bull spreads, reasons unknown.

Hogs: Interior hogs lower (e) and N/E again (w).

Pork cut outs fell $.29, slow trade.

Comments: April hogs the ‘big dog’ again with sharply higher prices while back months eased back rom those early highs. Perhaps some creeping doubts about Russia really taking ANY U.S. pork come March 10th was created by their Ukraine incursion. Yet April still under the idea packers are panicking for supplies now in case of a PEDv shortfall starting any minute.

Will be watchful for any sign of exhaustion.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Soybeans: Wheat: 1) The Ukraine/Russian situation, if having longer term export complications, would be most bullish wheat individually. And even then, this is not like a couple of year’s ago when the rest of the world was out of wheat. The world is not out of wheat but more properly perhaps out of the ‘cheapest wheat’. To fill in the void, I expect Europe and especially India to step up to the plate and to a degree Argentina and Australia, Canada (if they can find locomotives!). Hence a TEMPORAY situation it seems to me. 2) Corn the much more minor actor than wheat in the play as while the Ukraine has competed with us for export demand, importers still do not have to buy U.S. “at any price”. 3) Objectively, beans have held their major reversal on the charts and in fact I see no reason the Ukraine deal will materially effect global soybeans. Even the fact that China stated they agree with Russian moves will not steer China’s moves in this arena, though cancelling a load or two might.

Many of the international grain companies have made significant investments in Ukraine and they might have the most to lose.

Frankly, if Russia gets its hands on Ukraine crude oil pipelines then the world could likely have a major crimp in world economies. The political situation is really dire gentlemen. I pray it ends peacefully.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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