Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 3/25/14
CLOSING AGS 3/25/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $150.00 south & $152.00 Neb.; on 31 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.39(c) to dn. $1.10(s) on very light midday movement.

Comments: Until we see lower cash cattle prices, which seems logical this week, part of the futures pressure here is in part hog-limit-down related. Beef certainly could have topped out again (over $240.00 choice) but then the discount is, for now, well built-in.

Hogs: Interior hogs not/est.; Pork cut outs fell $2.01, led by loins.

Comments: I respect a market to top out all by itself but the wire services are blaming in part Rabobank that said “not as dire a view” (paraphrasing) on the hog number decline at off 6-7% on the year. I have not reacted to the numbers game for several weeks because there is no current way to forecast exact numbers; plus, I understand once a sow has the disease it has immunity for 11 months (time for two more litters?). Nonetheless, those that overplayed their long-hands in futures are the ones trapped in here. The top in? All I can say is “maybe” but a hell of a correction might well be at hand.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: The markets will be acting nutty likely until the USDA report is out of the way. Informa came up with, reportedly, 93.0mln. acres vs. prev. 93.3mln.; otherwise some cash movement noted and a lack of overnight export demand just made buyers more selective.

Soybeans: Informa’s acreage numbers 81.2mln. vs. 81.5mln. prev.; not much else going on in light volume again. No further word on China either.

Wheat: Informa’s All-Wheat acreage 56.6mln. vs. 56.1mln. prev.; winter wheat 41.9mln. vs. 43.0mln. prev. Lack luster session with profit taking prevalent but not exceedingly so. Southwestern U.S. drought situation still underpins as perhaps the Ukraine/Russian political tensions…and Russian/resat of the world tensions as well.

Informa cotton: 10.7mln. vs. 10.9mln. prev.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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