Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $147.-148.00 to 150.00 (Neb.) and $237.-240.00 dressed North; On 41 boxed loads cut outs up. $1.42(c) to up. $1.95(s) on midday movement.
Comments: Generally a quite day as the market minds its business. The discounts though allowed the sharply higher hog futures to provide some under lying support; beef sharply higher but day 2 of rally light movement is keeping some bulls on edge.
Hogs: Interior hogs mixed at up $168 (E) to dn. $3.15 (I/M); Pork cut outs rose $1.26, on bellies & loins.
Comments: Limit up June and April? Must be the day of honoring Russia’s lifting of the pork ban on U.S. pork. Or sales we do not see yet.
Not sue why but the panic buying in futures returned, I’m more surprised by that considering the premium than the sharp loss in the interior west (I know, late wire could be far different).
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: USDA: Carryover 1.45 bln.bu. off 25mln.bu. all due to export raised 25 mln.bu. and 30mln.bu. under avg. trade estimates…..either way, what’s 25 or 50mln.bu. among friends? World carryover rose 1.2mln.m/t’s; both Argentine and Brazil corn estimates unchanged on month. Avg. farm price $4.25-4.75 up $.05/dn. $.05 on month. The current futures market has been a demand driven one, remains to be seen if this report keeps importers from recent panic buying.
Soybeans: USDA: Carryover 145mln.bu. off 5.0mln. as an increase in exports of 20mln.bu. was partially offset by a decrease in the crush (10mln.) and increase in imports (5mln.); world carryover 70.6mln.m/’s dn. 2.5mln.m/t’s, mostly Brazil’s crop off 1.5mln. to 88.5mln.m/t’s; Argentine crop unchanged at 54mln.; avg. farm price $12.20-12.70 up $.25. Nothing bullish here but will it prompt China cancellations (one of the reasons beans supposedly are lower is the logic—Lower China export data equals lower imports (trade deficit)—-well not necessarily beans but…..China ports said full up and pig/poultry production down.
One more thing: while I talked about the crush offsetting the extra exports last week, I neglected the IMPORTS…..which might be increased again if prices kept rallying perhaps. A bit of a bear wrinkle.
Wheat: USDA report: carryover 558mln.bu. due to NO changes in supply or demand; world carryover then was 183.8mln.m/t’s up nominally on month; avg. farm price $6.75-6.95 unchanged. Pretty neutral, eh? I believe a big part of this market is the PERCEPTION (for now) exports will be hurt in the general Black Sea area. Held ‘well’ considering Rome burned around them.
Until late session that is.