Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 2/13/14
CLOSING AGS 2/13/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $139-142.00. On 123 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.48(c) to dn. $.15(s) on strong midday movement. ***late: few $142.00 Ks.

Comments: Well, at least dodged a bullet as per morning comments. A combination of high beef movement yesterday, an improved weekly beef export sales report and the midday’s large movement backgrounded the rally. And finally, not much concern over the south and east coasts weather apparently.

Hogs: Interior hogs Not/Est. early west, weaker east.

Pork cut outs fell $.84, on belly losses (up 6 yest. dn. 7 today!) losses.

Comments: New swing high for the April backgrounded by the cattle rally but also the large pork volume that picked up yesterday and the increase in the weekly pork export sales report, and of course that report from Ohio over a new strain of a pig virus.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: USDA ‘Baseline’ had new crop corn acreage at 93.5mln. with a crop of 14.2bln.bu. and a carryover of 2.607bln. That’s bearish but I do not agree with the plantings estimate based on several contacts…..it will likely be lower and the reverse for the beans. That report seemed to encourage bean/corn spreads however.

Soybeans: USDA acreage ‘Baseline’ at 78.0mln. with a 3.4bln. crop and a 203mln.bu. carryover, not exactly bullish but off other estimates ….if right on corn, bean plantings too low. BUT, March planting intentions are a long way off so the cry of ‘tight old crop stocks needs to be ration’ gets a nod from bulls. It’s all too Disneyland for me. But we have to deal with it.

I also wondered if that there were no more China cancellations in the overnight news and as such was considered bullish on the day? The weekly export sales reports meant nothing, not even as a clue apparently. And March meal took out its ‘reversal’ and made a new contract high after the marketing year low in exports. I am obviously reading this bean market wrongly or at best, prematurely. Time will tell. Did late session talk Brazil’s higher heat will decrease yields? I heard that late from a contact. Cannot argue just yet apparently.

Nice Valentines gift for some though.

Wheat: USDA ‘Baseline’ 57mln.acres with a 2.2bln. crop and a 642mln.bu. carryover….I am going neutral on that for now, considering prices. Wheat perhaps grudgingly moved higher but with beans on a tear, why not? The weekly sales lowered on week but ‘not bad’ as mentioned.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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