Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 2/11/14
CLOSING AGS 2/11/14

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $139-142.00. On 62 boxed loads cut outs dn. $1.14(c) to up. $.16(s) on light midday movement.

Comments: Strong rally on two reasons: 1)oversold after the big decrease in open interest and 2) belief by some that the beef market’s drop of $30.0 or so all that is needed to get retailers back featuring. What about just “refilling” pipelines? We’ll see if packer ‘management’ on light southern sales was an effort to back up some supplies.

Hogs: Interior hogs Not/Est. early west, firmer east.
Pork cut outs fell $.46, on ham/loins losses.

Comments: Weakness in futures: 1) Feb. only at a minor premium to the lean index and 2) April’s very near term technical tripped some light selling on the rally. And April early on held the higher end of nearby chart support, hence the choppy trade perhaps.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: March fell into fairly good support off the charts and the rally in beans/meal was enough apparently to cool off the sellers and perhaps force some shortcovering. Additionally, open interest might show funds came out buyers once again and ‘defended’ recent longs (as per the C-O-T report).

By the way, the USDA says 2014 farm income will fall 26.6% …..’largely due to lower corn and soybeans prices’.

Soybeans: March fell into the top of significant chart support and not unexpected. As mentioned, there’s still the talk of tight old crop supplies….no matter what the USDA says. And perhaps, no confirmation of China cancellations (I believe we’ll see cancellations but the exact day/or week is pure speculation. Hence a back and forth trade developed with March soymeal a prime supporter during the session.

Oh, and the rascally Brazilian President and its Ag Minster said today the bean crop will be 95mln.m/t’s (vs. the always dependable USDA’s take of ‘only’ 90mln. just yesterday). Blame it on the Casa’ Nova.

Wheat: Firm here and in Kc. but MGE was strongly higher (not sure why but it is a bit thin there). Anyway, talk of lows being in and exports staying high seems the background support.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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