Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 1/31/14
CLOSING AGS 1/31/14

Cattle: Cash cattle so far: $146.00 on light test only, south. On 44 boxed loads cut outs dn. $2.7(c) to dn. $1.21(s) on very light midday movement.

Comments: Looked like a knee-jerk reaction to the news of that beef processing plant shut down in California made the day’s lows. Kill ‘capy’ was 2,000hd./day and will likely get shipped south. I do not think that individually is a burden. For example, there’s a shortage of cash cattle behind record high prices; packer margins have been great (Tyson said its current FY sees beef profits up 47%); as such eventually all those Calif. cattle will be handily absorbed. Tyson also said FY 2014 beef supplies to be 2.3% lower on yr. Toss in more snow and frigid temps. coming.

Hogs: Interior hogs not well established.

Pork cut outs fell $1.72, on hams/bellies/loins weakness.

Comments: There are two distinct months: Feb. has to stay grounded by the lean index; had disappointing news as midday pork faltered. The April on the other hand: had new PEDv fuel as the American Academy of Veterinarians says found a new strain of PED; as some guy on the wire service said 40% of the U.S. hog herd infected; on reports 23 states now reported PED findings. Yet, no one has a firm handle on the approximate number of pigs we are likely to lose. Why bother? For now anyway, April is a long way off. Glad I decided to be a technician here (due to the big premium to cash). Additionally, Tyson said its FY 2014 will see a 3% decline in hog numbers. The “future(s)” look bright. Throw in psychology of heavy snows and frigid temps. coming in.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Wimpy trade and narrow ranges. Underlying support from another overnight purchase from Spain; on a return to big snows and frigid weather in the Midwest; slowed cash movement.

Soybeans: Certainly a more ‘tame’ trading session. March failed to even reach its minor m/a resistance before retreating. Good Argentine weather prospects offset some possible stress on beans in parts of Brazil; and a report Cargill will idle a crushing plant in NC took a little bull-steam out of the market it seems.

Wheat: Narrow range here also. No really fresh news; meandering corn and bean markets; and still-bearish technical seemed keeping a weekend shortcovering rally in check.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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