Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 12/20/13
CLOSING AGS 12/20/13

Cattle: Cash cattle this week: $130-131.00 & $207-208.00 dressed. On 56 boxed loads cut outs dn. $1.65(c) to dn. $1.61(s) on light midday movement.

Comments: Well, as corn did not receive good news yet on the USDA’s trip to China apparently beef did: U.S. and them to work to reopen beef exports by July (hey, we’re taking China’s reconstituted (from U.S.) chicken parts, they can end the ban on our beef). Curiously, Feb. rallies more than the June contract.

Hogs: Interior hogs early not well established, east OR west; Pork cut outs rose $1.00, led by bellies mostly (dn. $12.00 yest. to up $6.00 at noon wire).

Comments: Lackluster once again as Feb. hopes for some better cash news. Cold Storage report next Monday then the Pig Crop end month might also be reason for a consolidation (more on storage Monday).

Fun fact: McDonald’s says needs to move 10mln.lbs. of chicken wings out of storage relatively soon due to excess inventory due to less than hoped for demand…”unable to sell enough”. Too spicy, too pricey, weak economy etc. Well, not necessarily a fun fact for the chicken wing market. Perhaps we can export them (if not too old) to a more hot-blooded country.


Corn: If beans rallied in large part due to relatively “hot & dry” conditions showing up in South America next week, corn was relegated to less positive news out of U.S./China talks. As such, certainly seemed beans and meal was its main support in what looked like light volume. Also, 54 members of the U.S. House sent a love letter to the EPA and the GAO asking for an INCREASE in the RFS!

Soybeans: OK, guess this is a “weather market weekend ™” on forecasts for possible dry and hot conditions in South America. Brazil seen possibly hot and dry in major areas (though I understand crops still in decent shape) while Argentina seen at 90′ temps. (hot in South America? in the summer? what a concept). If prices are to negate a potential distribution-like top, it failed again in the mid-$13.40’s, we need a weather problem of more significant facts next week.

Wheat: Some shortcovering and I suspect some bottom picking on the premise that heavily short funds will take big profits on short positions (that and short corn profits financing long beans?) before year end and ensure their big bonuses. Not sure that’s entirely logical but if one conservatively wants to probe the long side do it in call options (especially hedgers perhaps to protect hedge profits). Otherwise, if futures be wary under $6.00 for now. And not look much until any rally can be sustained.

This is NOT an official trade recommendation.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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