Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $139.00-$140.00 & $221-222.00 dressed. On 39 boxed loads cut outs up. $1.76(c) to up. $2.0(s) on light midday movement.
Comments: Feb.’s rally a bit disconcerting if one kept buying on rallies. They have failed during its 6-day range. My concern is that the beef is nearing a high-water mark and seems impossible the retailers will (or can) pass along these increases to the consumer.
Of note: Jim Beam being sold to a Japanese firm. Whiskey with a Saki chaser?
Hogs: Interior hogs early not/est. (w), dn. $.53 (e); Pork cut outs fell $1.03, quiet.
Comments: The premium remains a problem largely because there’s only so many times one can justify by purely one vague possibility: PEV. Perhaps that is enough to keep the market (April-back?) from collapsing but conversely makes it tough to keep on buying it.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS:
Corn: Very choppy session and two-sided. Seemed like the bean pit was attracting the most interest. Prices still holding over the USDA’s slight decline in production numbers; USDA announced we sold China 120,000t SORGHUM.
Soybeans: Sharply higher led by spot January (expires tomorrow: final squeeze?). Why? Guess I’ll ‘fill in the blanks': dryness in Argentina?; sold Unknown 140,000t old crop (announced later morning)?; technically? Basis open interest I suggested a ‘mini-battle’ has ensued and considering the C-O-T report perhaps the rally is commercial-led. Cannot be sure.
Wheat: Oversold the likely reason for the bounce, not the piddling 55,000t sold to Egypt over the weekend. About the time KC started break down there was a news story about Argentina’s government announcing that 500,000t will now be available (and 50,000t flour) for export and that another 1.0mln. will be allowed if production estimates hold up; Ag Minister said they will sell every “last kernel of surplus”. Argentina hasn’t exported for months trying to keep domestic prices in check. They also need more foreign currency.