Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 11/26/13
CLOSING AGS 11/26/13

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $130.-$132.00, dressed $207.00; On76 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.13(c) to up. $.43(s) on light/mod/midday movement.

Comments: Decent rally seemed technically driven but the wire services said yesterday’s sharply higher beef did it. Bit of delayed reaction. Nonetheless, a new 6-day high is a new 6-day high and now await to see if the cash cattle market will respond accordingly. Then again it’s a holiday week.

Hogs: Interior hogs early N/E west, east up. $.20; Pork cut outs fell $.12 in mixed dealings.

Comments: December languishes while Feb. get a boost from the cattle rally it seemed. This PED deal has reports from various sources that it will kick in December, one other in 6-months, everyone else in between. Justifies the premium I presume.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Moderately hard break pushing prices near to their old lows. I suspect we’ll see large fund selling and of course large December liquidation. No fresh bearish news that I see but as mentioned fund might be ‘defending’ big short positions ahead of months end. Obviously technials remain poor.

Soybeans: January beans brought back from the brink so to speak as December meal turned tail and rallied nicely allowing Jan. to hold into nearby chart support. China’s 300,000t cancellation was more than offset by Unknown buying 360,000t (with China, it’s usually all price switching) and with the meal action perhaps some truth to the China U.S. soymeal purchases.

Wheat: Action seemed to mirror the corn pit, though the wire services are saying the winter wheat ratings were behind the decline. Needs a reason other than just a corn influence probably. However, like corn wheat has a substantial fund short position and perhaps funds ‘defending’ it.

Of note: USDA says 2013 farm income est. up 15.1% on year as more product to sell offsets lower prices. What farm bubble?

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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