Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 11/22/13
CLOSING AGS 11/22/13

Cattle: Cash cattle so far: $130.-$131.00 sdy./dn. $1.00 South, Neb. $131-131.50 sdy/dn. $.50 and dressed $207.00 dn. $1.00; On 125 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.19(c) to up. $.40(s) on good midday movement.

Comments: less than expected performance out of the live market, weekly losses in beef value and the upcoming catle-on-feed report/ Cold Storage backgrounded the futures weakness.

Hogs: Interior hogs early mixed, dn. $1.22/ up $1.89;

Pork cut outs fell $.05 in mixed dealings.

Comments: Western and I/M interior markets picked up here at end week but perhaps to fill in Monday’s kill after a big Saturday kill expected.The premium to the live/lean index and little signs of bullish lief to the pork just yet helped push the technicals back near to early week lows.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: I remembered way back when several times when corn prices fell to the low $2.00’s and under but stimulated great feed demand at the time. You know the old days before ethanol. Some bullish ideas popped up from some that domestic feed use could make a bear a bull. I contended that without exports to back it up, corn prices could sit at $2.00 all year and livestock eat it all there. Exports were the sizzle back then, and the sizzle in modern times as well. I contemplated that as ethanol demand (record high prices, good ethanol exports (and China top buyer of U.S. ‘s DDG) and tight stocks not allowing much futures upside support. So…..while exports have been very good generally, competition is keen and higher prices might shut it off. Then we’re left with ‘can ethanol turn a bear into a bull’? Feed or ethanol, it’s still domestic usage. Domestic usage might not be good enough again. Then again $4.00’s (if exports hold up) might be the new $2.00’s. Have a good weekend.

Soybeans: Basis yesterday’s open interest, today’s sharp rally might have been again Jan. contract shortcovering/light volume on technical moves and backgrounded by still-strong export demand out of China. Another reason: the big soymeal rally. While part of it unwinding of the soyoil/meal spreads, part of it seems a “forced” exit for shorts out of the December contract before next weeks 1st notice day. If more than that, we’ll see. Yesterday Dec. soyoil rose near to range highs, today the meal and beans did. All for naught? Next week likely interesting. LATE: rumor China bought U.S. Meal?

Wheat: Prices held well and part of it unwinding of he wheat/corn spreads.

The market’s claim to fame is a serious technical consolidation over important range lows and that export demand picked up on the price break. i did say an important counter-trend does begin into Dec./Jan. but not sure it’s here yet.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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