Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 11/19/13

Cattle: Cash cattle last week: $131.-132.00; On 88 boxed loads cut outs dn. $.68(c) to dn. $.47(s) on light/moderate midday movement.

Comments: Follow through selling after yesterday’s collapse added to the downside with Dec. on spreads somewhat supported by rolling into the Feb. and others. Cash cattle now obviously called lower with the Dec.’s decline at the low end of the cash range from last week ($131.00-132.00). Beef prices have also eroded packer margins making it doubtful they would pay steady or much less higher for cash cattle. Sept. beef exports posted at dn. 11.4% on the month but still up 9.1% on the yr. (last USDA report sees 2014 exports falling 6.4%).

Hogs: Interior hogs early mixed with west up $3.30 and east off $.35; Pork cut outs fell $1.25 led by hams and bellies.

Comments: Are buyers of the pork primal cuts doing all the yo-yo’ing in the pork trade? This new USDA reporting is either too sensitive or packers are showing off their way of manipulation. Nonetheless, I/M interior rose over $3.00 early, will see if it sticks on late wire, but that supported futures apparently.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: More new contract lows, except the Dec., and a ‘mini-reversal’ in the March after making new contract lows. Alright, Dec. made a new SWING low before closing higher. The big deal to me was the ethanol mandate, not that China rejected a cargo of U.S. wheat…..they’ll get it replaced and at lower money.

Soybeans: Back from the brink? Will be interesting to if funds hammered the market early (via o/i) but in the end January held above important near term support. While China bought 240,000t of beans for 2013-2014, it indicates they are committed to accumulating a major store of product.

Wheat: Well, maybe the idea of buying some call options not all that bad a deal. However, for now the rally is classified in an old saying as a ‘bubble in a bear’ until proven otherwise. Egypt buying Russia wheat likely covered (discounted) yesterday and still I like seeing an active global wheat demand. Takes away some competing supplies.

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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