Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 10/30/13
CLOSING AGS 10/30/13

Cattle: Cash cattle in total: $131-134.00 and $207-208.00 dressed; On 65 boxed loads cut outs sharply higher at up. $1.07/$1.44 on light midday volume.

Comments: I believe there’s reason for concern when a market (Dec.) has a series of ‘reversals’ while (after) making new highs then consolidating. Perhaps the funds, or just plain technical buying, is just money looking for a home. I feel OK treating as a trading affair here though I’d rather have been bullish awhile longer past summer. Nonetheless, speculatively had no wish to buy and hold after recent new highs whipsawed. And have not moved on hedges either (new accounts recommended to hedge). Supply bull vs. demand bear? Next week or so should tell the story. And just as an aside, I was alerted to the Feb. cattle chart and saw that it’s a realistically looking “distribution top” forming. And November feeder cattle had an ominous downside breakout today?Too many warning flags to just ignore.

Hogs: Interior hogs eastern unquoted due to “confidentiality”, western up $.43 ($85.30avg.); pork cut outs sharply lower midday (again).

Comments: “Key Reversals”? Do I dare mention a (legit) one? Old school in me has to and as long as December closes under $91.20 that’s what we have to deal with.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: Weak performance again in what likely was more short-selling though much lighter than before perhaps. Export demand has been excellent but the theme is likely production has been “excellent-er” to offset any likely increases. And then there’s that EPA stuff (it’s an excuse that while not mentioned by the press everyday is, in the words of Wilie Nelson “always on my mind”).

Soybeans: Modest gains as the recovery continues. We’ll see how many deliveries show up soon with a fresh input of harvested supplies. Elsewise talk about China and other demand and an expected large USDA October composite weekly export sales number backgrounded support.

Wheat: Moderate losses, part of which corn related but most of it likely word that India sharply lowered its minimum export price in a bid to move large carryover stocks before the stocks become damaged and worth nothing

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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