Kleist Comments

CLOSING AGS 10/25/13
CLOSING AGS 10/25/13

Cattle: Cash cattle in total: $131-134.00 and $207-208.00 dressed; On 62 boxed loads cut outs lower at dn. $.50 (sel.) to dn. $88 (chc.) on light midday volume.

Comments: Was that another ‘reversal’ as October dropped over $2.00 after posting a new record high price? Two “serious about faces” in as many weeks? The last reversal was tough to play (snapped out of it) but happening this closely would seem to indicate some of the cash/futures up-move has an air of temporary to it. We’ll see. Hedgers hang in there.
As mentioned, we are coming into Ham/Turkey season just as retail prices will be rising.

Hogs: Interior hogs under “confidentiality” clause early; pork cut outs slightly lower midday dn $.08.

Comments: As mentioned I heard then read of reports that PED swine disease effecting young pigs reportedly sprung up again in the south amid the advent of cooler weather. While cash hogs are stumbling, fund managers seem to be re-entering longs on just that type of information (as per open interest).

GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

Corn: choppy, narrowly changed session torn between harvest over the weekend to support form wheat/corn spreading and export demand. In essence, did nothing for the week except hold up better than expected.

Soybeans: I do believe that “double high’ posted yesterday in November beans tossed out alarm bells and with ‘weather market weekend’(tm) suggesting warm and clear conditions, some hedging did occur as did some profit taking for those buying breaks for trading turns. However, November did close the week out holding $13.00 which is a bit impressive and we saw export demand also holding up well.

Wheat: Modestly lower on….? Black Sea conditions improved? India might be ready to dump excess storage (major quantities) into export channels that they stubbornly hung onto even as record harvest loomed? Russia’s Farm Min. saying plantings quickly getting back to average? How about some corn/wheat spreading? And why is December Chgo. having such a tough time holding over $7.00? Then again, the charts say it’s just a trading affair and we have been more or less priced about right in the global markets…let’s see if anything changes that…

Kleist Comments

This is John Kleist, of Kleist Ag Consulting.
Questions? Email me: johnwkleist@sbcglobal.net

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